This year, we’ve been tracking customer retention rates across swim schools for each academic term. Our latest analysis explores retention rates for Term 3 (July to September), a period marked by a transition from winter to spring months in Australia and New Zealand.
About the Data
This analysis examines cancellation data from Term 3 of 2024, focusing on swim schools with starting enrollments ranging from 241 to 2,495 students. The average enrollment size was 885 students.
As with previous analyses, this data was collected from First Class class management software, which tracks key performance indicators, including attrition.
Methodology
We calculated the attrition rate for each swim school as follows:
Attrition Rate = Cancelled Students / Starting Students
Example Calculation:
For a swim school with 42 cancellations and 443 starting enrollments:
Attrition Rate = 42 / 443 ≈ 9.48%
To estimate the monthly attrition rate, the term rate was divided by three, accounting for a 10-week term plus two weeks of holidays:
Monthly Attrition Rate = Term Attrition Rate / 3
Findings
Monthly Attrition Averages
The average monthly attrition rate across all swim schools for Term 3 was 3.89%, a notable improvement compared to Term 2’s 7.13% monthly average.
The best performed swimming school displayed an attrition rate of 7.05% for the term.
The worst performed swimming school displayed an attrition rate of 17.06% for the term.
The large variance in results shows that a large amount of attrition is controllable.
Term Averages:
Term | Monthly Attrition Average (%) |
Term 1 (Jan-Mar) | 4.14 |
Term 2 (Apr-Jun) | 7.13 |
Term 3 (Jul-Sep) | 3.89 |
Overall Average:
The average monthly attrition across all three terms was 5.05%. This indicates a moderate trend for the year, with significant peaks during Term 2 and a strong recovery in Term 3.
How Did the Data Compare to Previous Terms?
| Metric | Term 1 (Jan-Mar) | Term 2 (Apr-Jun) | Term 3 (Jul-Sep) |
| Best Attrition | 8.42% | 14.8% | 7.05% |
| Worst Attrition | 19% | 29.7% | 17.06% |
| Average Attrition | 12.41% | 21.4% | 11.67% |
The average attrition rate in Term 3 dropped significantly from Term 2’s 21.4%, reflecting a strong recovery from the winter drop off. The best-performing swimming schools improved their retention significantly compared to Term 2. However, the worst attrition rate is still high at 17.06%, though lower than Term 2’s peak of 29.7%.
Conclusion of Findings
As we put the analysis periods together we start to see a clearer picture of how customer attrition impacts swim schools over the course of a year.
As weather improves there are less people dropping out of lessons.
Its important to note that a drop of is natural in the swim school business model and many of these customers will likely return when the time is right.
Obviously, the lower the better then it comes to customer retention however an ideal average across a year should be seen between 2-4% in terms of monthly average attrition.
The average monthly attrition of 5.05% across the year underscores that while retention remains a challenge, swim schools are making strides in managing their customer base effectively.
Future Analysis
To provide ongoing insights to the industry, we’ll continue analyzing retention rates for each term. For Term 4 (October to December), we plan to include additional variables such as:
– Country-specific retention trends.
– The impact of business models on retention.
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