Over the last 12 months, we’ve been tracking customer retention rates across swim schools for each academic term. Our latest analysis explores retention rates for Term 4 (October to December), a period that leads into the new year, often bringing shifts in enrollment patterns due to students leaving school or schedule changes.
About the Data
This analysis examines cancellation data from Term 4 of 2024, focusing on swim schools with starting enrollments ranging from 241 to 2,495 students. The average enrollment size was 812.77 students.
As with previous analyses, this data was collected from First Class class management software, which tracks key performance indicators, including attrition and enrollment growth.
Methodology
We calculated the attrition rate for each swim school as follows:
Attrition Rate = Cancelled Students / Starting Students
Example Calculation:
For a swim school with 47 cancellations and 514 starting enrollments:
Attrition Rate = 47 / 514 ≈ 9.14%
To estimate the monthly attrition rate, the term rate was divided by three, accounting for a 10-week term plus two weeks of holidays:
Monthly Attrition Rate = Term Attrition Rate / 3
Findings
Monthly Attrition Averages
The average monthly attrition rate across all swim schools for Term 4 was 5.77%, higher than Term 3’s 3.89% monthly average but more in line with annual trends.
Best-performing swim school: 3.69% per month
Worst-performing swim school: 8.09% per month
This increase in attrition suggests a higher-than-expected drop-off heading into the new year. Factors contributing to this trend include students finishing school or experiencing schedule changes that disrupt their lesson commitments.
Term Averages:
Term 1 (Jan-Mar): 4.14%
Term 2 (Apr-Jun): 7.13%
Term 3 (Jul-Sep): 3.89%
Term 4 (Oct-Dec): 5.77%
The average monthly attrition across the year was 5.23%
The higher-performing swim schools were averaging well below 5% monthly attrition across the year.
Growth Insights
Despite the higher attrition in Term 4, swim schools experienced a notable average student growth of 31.33 students per school, reflecting an average growth rate of 3.71%. This indicates a strong influx of new customers during this period, potentially offsetting some of the attrition losses.
Comparison to Previous Terms:
Best Attrition Rates: Term 3 (3.89% per month)
Worst Attrition Rates: Term 2 (7.13% per month %)
Yearly Average Attrition: 5.23%
Conclusion of Findings
Tracking attrition rates across multiple terms provides a clearer picture of how customer retention impacts swim schools throughout the year. The data from this most recent analysis shows:
- A strong influx of new customers despite attrition.
- A higher-than-expected drop-off in Term 4, likely due to schedule changes heading into the new year.
- The best retention rates occurred in Term 3, while Term 2 saw the highest attrition.
- A yearly average monthly attrition of 5.23% aligns with typical industry expectations but highlights room for improvement.
Future Analysis
To provide ongoing insights into the industry, we’ll continue analyzing retention rates for each term. For the 2025 analysis, we plan to expand our scope by including:
- Country-specific retention trends to compare swim schools in different regions.
- The impact of business models on retention, examining whether different lesson structures or pricing strategies influence attrition.
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